Chris Guo
| Indicator | Value | Units | YoY Change | As Of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-Year Breakeven Inflation | 2.28 | Percent | -4.60% | 2026-07-31 |
| 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.68 | Percent | +6.85% | 2026-07-30 |
| 10Y TIPS Real Yield | 2.41 | Percent | +22.96% | 2026-07-30 |
| 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread | 0.47 | Percent | +9.30% | 2026-07-31 |
| 2-Year Treasury Yield | 4.23 | Percent | +7.36% | 2026-07-30 |
| 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.66 | Percent | -1.19% | 2026-07-30 |
| 5-Year Breakeven Inflation | 2.26 | Percent | -8.13% | 2026-07-31 |
| 5Y5Y Forward Breakeven | 2.30 | Percent | -0.86% | 2026-07-31 |
| All Consumer Debt Delinquency (NY Fed, 90+) | 3.36 | Percent | +18.14% | 2026-01-01 |
| All Loan Delinquency Rate | 1.48 | Percent | -4.52% | 2026-01-01 |
| Anxiety/Depression Prevalence (CDC Pulse) | 21.40 | Percent | -25.69% | 2024-09-16 |
| Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker (YoY) | 3.60 | Percent Change from Year Ago | -12.20% | 2026-06-01 |
| Auto Loan Delinquency (NY Fed, 90+) | 5.60 | Percent | +12.30% | 2026-01-01 |
| Auto Originations to Subprime (<620), NY Fed | 15.61 | Percent | +0.40% | 2026-01-01 |
| Auto Transition into 90+ Delinquency (NY Fed) | 2.97 | Percent | +1.08% | 2026-01-01 |
| Bank C&I Loan Tightening | 2.00 | Percent | -64.29% | 2026-04-01 |
| Bitcoin (USD) | 62886.64 | U.S. Dollars | -44.47% | 2026-07-31 |
| CCC & Lower High-Yield OAS | 10.06 | Percent | +19.90% | 2026-07-30 |
| Case-Shiller US Home Price Index | 335.10 | Index Jan 2000=100 | +1.11% | 2026-05-01 |
| Construction Payrolls | 8331.00 | Thousands of Persons | +0.77% | 2026-06-01 |
| Consumer Loan Delinquency Rate | 2.64 | Percent | -4.69% | 2026-01-01 |
| Consumer Price Index (CPI) | 332.57 | Index 1982-1984=100 | +3.46% | 2026-06-01 |
| Consumer Sentiment (UMich) | 49.50 | Index 1966:Q1=100 | -18.45% | 2026-06-01 |
| Continued Claims (weekly) | 1782000.00 | Number | -8.19% | 2026-07-18 |
| Core CPI (ex Food & Energy) | 336.06 | Index 1982-1984=100 | +2.57% | 2026-06-01 |
| Credit Card Charge-Off Rate | 3.84 | Percent | -13.90% | 2026-01-01 |
| Credit Card Delinquency (NY Fed, 90+) | 13.12 | Percent | +6.58% | 2026-01-01 |
| Credit Card Delinquency Rate | 2.92 | Percent | -4.58% | 2026-01-01 |
| Credit Card Transition into 90+ Delinquency (NY Fed) | 7.12 | Percent | +1.13% | 2026-01-01 |
| Credit Card Utilization (NY Fed) | 22.83 | Percent | -0.39% | 2026-01-01 |
| Crude Birth Rate (per 1,000) | 10.60 | Births per 1,000 People | -0.93% | 2024-01-01 |
| Drug Overdose Deaths (12-mo, CDC) | 67531.00 | Deaths (12-mo ending) | -13.20% | 2026-02-01 |
| Education & Health Payrolls | 27973.00 | Thousands of Persons | +2.37% | 2026-06-01 |
| Exports (Goods & Services) | 210561.00 | Millions of Dollars | +15.83% | 2026-05-01 |
| Fed Balance Sheet (Total Assets) | 6738190.00 | Millions of U.S. Dollars | +1.21% | 2026-07-29 |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.63 | Percent | -16.17% | 2026-06-01 |
| Federal Debt to GDP | 122.59 | Percent of GDP | +1.70% | 2026-01-01 |
| Fertility Rate (births per woman) | 1.63 | Births per Woman | +0.62% | 2024-01-01 |
| Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) | -0.55 | Index | +8.41% | 2026-07-24 |
| Foreign Holdings of US Treasuries | 9.27 | USD Trillions | +7.56% | 2025-10-01 |
| Gold (USD/oz) | 4026.60 | USD/oz | +22.06% | 2026-07-31 |
| Government Payrolls | 23371.00 | Thousands of Persons | -0.91% | 2026-06-01 |
| Health Spending per Capita | 9298.69 | U.S. Dollars | +10.03% | 2021-01-01 |
| High Yield OAS Spread | 2.84 | Percent | -1.73% | 2026-07-30 |
| Household Debt Service Ratio | 11.16 | Percent | +0.53% | 2026-01-01 |
| Household Net Worth | 174009620.00 | Millions of U.S. Dollars | +7.98% | 2026-01-01 |
| Housing Affordability Index (NAR) | 102.30 | Index | +7.12% | 2026-06-01 |
| Housing Starts | 1427.00 | Thousands of Units | +3.48% | 2026-06-01 |
| Import Price Index | 150.80 | Index 2000=100 | +7.10% | 2026-06-01 |
| Imports (Goods & Services) | 317045.00 | Millions of Dollars | +15.47% | 2026-05-01 |
| Industrial Production | 102.64 | Index 2017=100 | +1.14% | 2026-06-01 |
| Information / Tech Payrolls | 2774.00 | Thousands of Persons | -3.11% | 2026-06-01 |
| Initial Jobless Claims (weekly) | 197000.00 | Number | -9.63% | 2026-07-25 |
| Investment-Grade Corporate OAS | 0.80 | Percent | +2.56% | 2026-07-30 |
| Labor Force Participation Rate | 61.50 | Percent | -1.28% | 2026-06-01 |
| Labor Productivity | 119.44 | Index 2017=100 | +2.80% | 2026-01-01 |
| Leisure & Hospitality Payrolls | 16951.00 | Thousands of Persons | +0.68% | 2026-06-01 |
| Life Expectancy at Birth | 78.89 | Number of Years | +0.64% | 2024-01-01 |
| M2 Money Stock | 23155.20 | Billions of Dollars | +5.53% | 2026-06-01 |
| M2 Velocity | 1.41 | Ratio | +1.22% | 2026-04-01 |
| Manufacturing Payrolls | 12598.00 | Thousands of Persons | -0.30% | 2026-06-01 |
| Median Credit Score, New Auto Loans (NY Fed) | 723.00 | Credit Score | -0.96% | 2026-01-01 |
| Median Credit Score, New Mortgages (NY Fed) | 762.00 | Credit Score | -1.30% | 2026-01-01 |
| Monthly Federal Deficit | -120305.28 | Millions of Dollars | -545.41% | 2026-06-01 |
| Months' Supply of New Homes | 9.30 | Months' Supply | +3.33% | 2026-06-01 |
| Mortgage Delinquency Rate | 1.89 | Percent | +6.78% | 2026-01-01 |
| Mortgage Originations to Subprime (<620), NY Fed | 2.55 | Percent | -45.91% | 2026-01-01 |
| Natural Gas — Henry Hub ($/MMBtu) | 2.63 | Dollars per Million BTU | -15.16% | 2026-07-27 |
| Net Foreign Investment | -994.54 | Billions of Dollars | -33.81% | 2026-01-01 |
| Nominal GDP | 32.48 | USD Trillions | +6.53% | 2026-04-01 |
| Nonfarm Payrolls | 158984.00 | Thousands of Persons | +0.32% | 2026-06-01 |
| Overnight Reverse Repo | 2.15 | Billions of US Dollars | -99.00% | 2026-07-31 |
| PCE Price Index | 131.39 | Index 2017=100 | +3.67% | 2026-06-01 |
| Part-Time for Economic Reasons | 4681.00 | Thousands of Persons | +4.65% | 2026-06-01 |
| Personal Saving Rate | 2.70 | Percent | -41.30% | 2026-06-01 |
| Prime-Age Employment Ratio (25-54) | 80.20 | Percent | -0.62% | 2026-06-01 |
| Prime-Age Participation Rate (25-54) | 83.30 | Percent | -0.24% | 2026-06-01 |
| Professional & Business Services Payrolls | 22507.00 | Thousands of Persons | +0.39% | 2026-06-01 |
| Real GDP Growth | 1.50 | Percent Change from Preceding Period | -60.53% | 2026-04-01 |
| Real Personal Consumption | 16885.20 | Billions of Chained 2017 Dollars | +2.54% | 2026-06-01 |
| Recession Probability (12-mo, yield curve) | 0.54 | Percent | +0.00% | 2026-05-01 |
| Retail Gasoline ($/gal) | 4.10 | Dollars per Gallon | +31.24% | 2026-07-27 |
| Retail Sales | 768553.00 | Millions of Dollars | +6.72% | 2026-06-01 |
| Retail Trade Payrolls | 15459.70 | Thousands of Persons | +0.22% | 2026-06-01 |
| Sahm Rule Recession Indicator | 0.07 | Percentage Points | -58.82% | 2026-06-01 |
| Silver (USD/oz) | 57.73 | USD/oz | +59.37% | 2026-07-31 |
| Sticky-Price Core CPI (YoY) | 2.81 | Percent Change from Year Ago | -15.01% | 2026-06-01 |
| Student Loan Delinquency (NY Fed, 90+) | 10.34 | Percent | +33.53% | 2026-01-01 |
| Student Loan Transition into 90+ Delinquency (NY Fed) | 10.86 | Percent | +35.07% | 2026-01-01 |
| Temporary Help Services Payrolls | 2499.20 | Thousands of Persons | -0.22% | 2026-06-01 |
| Total Public Debt Outstanding | 39.07 | USD Trillions | +7.87% | 2026-01-01 |
| Trade Balance | -77585.00 | Millions of Dollars | +16.24% | 2026-05-01 |
| Trade Weighted Dollar Index | 120.71 | Index Jan 2006=100 | +0.96% | 2026-07-24 |
| U-6 Underemployment Rate | 7.90 | Percent | +2.60% | 2026-06-01 |
| US Total Market Cap (Corporate Equities) | 69.51 | USD Trillions | +17.06% | 2026-01-01 |
| Under-30 Transition into 90+ Delinquency (NY Fed) | 4.73 | Percent | +41.18% | 2026-01-01 |
| Unemployment Rate | 4.20 | Percent | +2.44% | 2026-06-01 |
| Unemployment Rate — Prime Age (25-54) | 3.70 | Percent | +12.12% | 2026-06-01 |
| Unemployment Rate — Young (20-24) | 7.10 | Percent | -13.41% | 2026-06-01 |
| Unemployment — Bachelor's+ (25+) | 2.70 | Percent | +8.00% | 2026-06-01 |
| Unemployment — High School Only (25+) | 4.20 | Percent | +5.00% | 2026-06-01 |
| Unemployment — Less Than High School (25+) | 5.50 | Percent | -5.17% | 2026-06-01 |
| Unemployment — Some College / Associate (25+) | 3.60 | Percent | +12.50% | 2026-06-01 |
| VIX (S&P 500 Implied Vol) | 17.09 | Index | +10.40% | 2026-07-30 |
| WTI Crude Oil Price | 84.25 | Dollars per Barrel | +26.92% | 2026-07-27 |
| Buffett Indicator (Market Cap / GDP) | 218.14 | Percent | +10.36% | 2026-01-01 |
| Foreign-Held Share of US Debt | 24.07 | Percent | +1.15% | 2025-10-01 |
High-yield bond spread over Treasuries, measures credit risk.
Normal: <3% normal, >5% stress, >8% crisis
Option-adjusted spread on investment-grade corporate bonds — the risk premium on the safest corporate credit. Widening here means stress is reaching high-quality issuers, not just junk.
Normal: <130bps benign; >200bps stress
Spread on the lowest-rated junk bonds — the riskiest tail of corporate credit and the first to blow out when default fears rise. Leads the broad HY index at turns.
Normal: <800bps benign; >1200bps distress
Composite index of 105 financial market indicators.
Normal: <0 loose, >0 tight
Net percent of banks tightening C&I loan standards.
Normal: <10% normal, >20% credit crunch
Percent of loans past due across all categories.
Normal: 1.5-2.5%
Percent of credit card loans past due at commercial banks. Leading gauge of consumer balance-sheet stress — rises before broader loan delinquencies and before consumption rolls over.
Normal: 2-3% benign; >5% stress; 2010 cycle peak ~6.8%
Percent of all consumer loans (credit cards, auto, personal) past due at commercial banks. Broader than the card-only series — captures auto and installment stress too. Note: bank-held only; excludes fintech/BNPL and federal student loans (see NY Fed Consumer Credit Panel for those).
Normal: 2-3% benign; >4% stress
Percent of single-family residential mortgages past due at commercial banks. Housing-credit stress gauge; hit ~11% in the 2010 cycle. Low delinquency here is what pulls the all-loan aggregate down.
Normal: <2% benign; >4% stress; 2010 peak ~11%
Annualized rate at which banks write off credit card balances as uncollectible. Confirms whether rising delinquencies are converting into realized losses — lags delinquency by a few quarters.
Normal: 3-4% benign; >6% stress; 2010 peak ~10.5%
Percent of credit-card balances 90+ days delinquent, all lenders (NY Fed Consumer Credit Panel). Broader and higher than the FRED bank-held card series — includes fintech and store cards. Highest since 2011.
Normal: 8-9% benign; 2010-11 peak ~13.7%
Percent of student-loan balances 90+ days delinquent, all lenders (NY Fed Consumer Credit Panel). Spiked in 2025 as federal-loan reporting resumed after the multi-year payment pause — invisible to the FRED bank-held series.
Normal: ~9-11% now; was ~0% during 2020-2024 reporting pause
Percent of auto-loan balances 90+ days delinquent, all lenders (NY Fed Consumer Credit Panel). Captures subprime and non-bank auto lenders that dominate this market.
Normal: <3% benign; >4% stress
Percent of total household debt 90+ days delinquent, all lenders (NY Fed Consumer Credit Panel). Mortgage-weighted, so lower than the card/student/auto components underneath it.
Normal: 2-3% benign; 2010 peak ~8.7%
Share of current credit-card balances that newly fell 90+ days behind this quarter — the flow, all lenders and ages. Leading gauge of consumer balance-sheet stress.
Normal: ~5-6% benign; higher = accelerating stress
Share of current auto-loan balances that newly fell 90+ days behind this quarter — the flow, all lenders and ages. Leads the delinquency stock; cracks first when consumers weaken.
Normal: ~2% benign; watch the trend, not the level
Share of current student-loan balances that newly fell 90+ days behind this quarter — the flow, all ages. Jumped sharply as federal-loan reporting resumed in 2025.
Normal: distorted by 2020-24 reporting pause
Share of all debt held by 18-29 year-olds that newly fell 90+ days behind this quarter. Young borrowers crack earliest in a downturn — the leading edge of the leading indicator.
Normal: structurally higher than older cohorts; watch the trend
Aggregate credit-card balances as a percent of total credit limits. Rising utilization = consumers leaning harder on revolving credit with less headroom left — a stress gauge that leads delinquency.
Normal: ~20-25%; higher = tapped out
Share of new auto-loan dollars originated to borrowers with credit scores below 620. Rising = lenders reaching down the credit spectrum; the underwriting-loosening signal behind record auto delinquency.
Normal: ~15-20% of origination volume
Median credit score of newly originated auto loans. Falling = looser underwriting; rising = lenders tightening and screening out weaker borrowers.
Normal: ~700; higher = tighter credit
Share of new mortgage dollars originated to borrowers with credit scores below 620. Near-zero since 2008 — the structural reason mortgage credit stays pristine even as auto/card deteriorate.
Normal: <5% post-2008; was ~15% pre-crisis
Median credit score of newly originated mortgages. Elevated (~760+) post-2008 reflects tight underwriting — new mortgage risk stays low regardless of origination volume.
Normal: ~760; higher = tighter credit
Federal Reserve's overnight policy interest rate.
Normal: ~2.5% neutral
Yield on 2-year Treasuries, reflects Fed rate expectations.
Normal: Tracks fed funds
Yield on 10-year US government bonds.
Normal: 3-4%
Spread between 10Y and 2Y Treasury yields.
Normal: >0 normal, <0 recession signal
Average rate for 30-year fixed-rate home loans.
Normal: 4-6% historically
Measures overall consumer price changes across the economy.
Normal: 2-3% YoY
CPI excluding volatile food and energy components.
Normal: ~2% YoY (Fed target)
Fed's preferred inflation measure based on consumer spending.
Normal: 2% YoY (Fed target)
Tracks tariff and FX pass-through to import costs.
Normal: -2% to +5% YoY
Yield on 10-year inflation-protected Treasuries — direct read on real rates.
Normal: 0-2% normal, >2% restrictive, negative = accommodative
Market-implied inflation expectations derived from TIPS.
Normal: 2-2.5%
10Y nominal Treasury minus 10Y TIPS — market-implied 10yr inflation expectations.
Normal: 2-2.5%
Market-implied avg inflation over the 5 years starting 5 years out. Fed's preferred long-run expectations gauge.
Normal: 2-2.5%
Percent of labor force actively seeking work.
Normal: 3.5-5% healthy, >6% weakness
Broadest slack measure: unemployed + marginally attached + those working part-time who want full-time. The gap vs. headline U-3 reveals hidden underemployment.
Normal: ~7% tight, 8-9% normal, >10% slack building
Monthly change in total employed workers.
Normal: 150-250K/month expansion
Percent of working-age population employed or seeking work. Structural labor supply gauge — distinguishes falling unemployment from workers exiting the labor force.
Normal: 62-63% post-COVID, ~67% pre-2000s peak
New unemployment-insurance filings each week — the fastest read on layoffs. Sustained moves above ~250k signal a weakening labor market; the level the Fed watches for the first crack.
Normal: 200-250k healthy; >300k stress
People still collecting unemployment — how hard it is to get re-hired once laid off. Rising continued claims with flat initial claims means a 'low-fire, low-hire' market where the unemployed stay unemployed longer.
Normal: ~1.6-1.8M normal; >2M softening
Triggers when the 3-month-average unemployment rate rises 0.5pp above its 12-month low. Has flagged every recession since 1970 in real time with no false positives. At/above 0.5 = recession likely underway.
Normal: <0.5 expansion; >=0.5 recession trigger
Estimated probability of recession 12 months out from the Treasury yield-curve spread (NY Fed model). Readings above ~30% have historically preceded downturns.
Normal: <10% benign; >30% elevated
Median year-over-year wage growth of matched individuals — cleaner than average hourly earnings because it isn't distorted by workforce composition. Compare against CPI to see if real wages are rising or falling.
Normal: ~3-4% consistent with 2% inflation
Inflation in prices that change infrequently (rent, insurance, services) — the persistent, slow-moving core that the Fed cares most about. Stickier and more forward-looking than headline CPI.
Normal: 2% Fed target
Share of 25-54 year-olds employed. Strips out retirement/schooling demographics, so it's the cleanest read on labor demand — the Fed's favorite full-employment gauge.
Normal: 80-81% = full employment, <78% = slack
Labor force participation of 25-54 year-olds. Rising = workers pulled back in (supply expanding); falling = discouragement or structural exit.
Normal: 82-84% healthy
Joblessness among core working-age adults. Less noisy than headline; rises early when prime-age workers can't find work.
Normal: 3-4% healthy
New-grad / early-career joblessness. Cyclically the most sensitive cohort — young workers are first fired, last hired, so this leads the broader labor cycle.
Normal: 6-8% normal, >9% = young workers shut out
Workers stuck in part-time jobs who want full-time — involuntary underemployment. Rises when firms cut hours before cutting heads.
Normal: ~4M normal, spikes signal labor-demand softening
Joblessness for degree-holders. The floor of the labor market — when this rises, white-collar/knowledge-job demand is cracking.
Normal: 2-2.5% healthy, >3% = white-collar weakness
Joblessness for those with some college but no bachelor's degree. The middle of the education-attainment ladder.
Normal: 3-4% healthy
Joblessness for high-school grads with no college — jobs that typically don't require a degree. Cyclically more sensitive than the degree cohort.
Normal: 4-5% healthy, >6% = blue-collar weakness
Joblessness for those without a high-school diploma — the most cyclically exposed, lowest-skill segment. First to rise in a downturn.
Normal: 5-7% normal, >8% = labor distress
Factory employment. Cyclical, trade- and tariff-sensitive, and a barometer of goods demand and reshoring.
Normal: Watch YoY direction — contraction signals industrial slowdown
Building employment. Rate-sensitive — turns down fast when mortgage rates choke housing and CRE.
Normal: Watch YoY — early-cycle casualty of rate hikes
High-wage white-collar employment (consulting, legal, corporate services). Bellwether for knowledge-economy hiring.
Normal: Watch YoY — softening leads broader white-collar cuts
Tech, media, telecom employment. Small but high-signal — captures the tech hiring/layoff cycle.
Normal: Watch YoY — volatile, tracks tech capex and rates
Staffing-agency employment. A classic leading indicator — firms cut temps before permanent staff, so this turns down ahead of the broader labor market.
Normal: Watch YoY — leads payrolls by ~3-6 months
Restaurants, hotels, entertainment. Discretionary-spending sensitive — early read on consumer pullback.
Normal: Watch YoY — tracks discretionary consumer health
Private education and healthcare. Acyclical workhorse — has carried recent payroll gains; weakness here is a late, ominous signal.
Normal: Watch YoY — steady; deceleration is notable
Federal, state, and local employment. Non-market hiring — distinguishes private-sector strength from government-driven payroll headlines.
Normal: Watch YoY — strip out to judge underlying private demand
Store and e-commerce employment. Consumer-demand and structural (automation/online shift) sensitive.
Normal: Watch YoY — secular pressure plus cyclical swings
Annualized quarter-over-quarter real GDP change.
Normal: 2-3% trend, <0 recession
Total US GDP in current dollars. Denominator of the Buffett indicator and most fiscal ratios.
Normal: Trend ~4-5% nominal growth
Output per hour worked in the nonfarm business sector.
Normal: 1-2% growth
Total output of manufacturing, mining, and utilities.
Normal: >100 expanding
Broad money supply — captures liquidity pool flowing into assets and inflation. Leads CPI by 12-18 months.
Normal: 4-6% YoY growth, contraction = tightening
GDP / M2. Measures how actively money circulates. Rising velocity + stable M2 = inflationary.
Normal: Secular decline, inflections matter
Total Federal Reserve assets. Tracks QE/QT and post-QT reserve management. Pivots signal vol regime changes.
Normal: QE = expanding, QT = shrinking; post-2025 RMPs (~$40B/mo T-bills) expand B/S as plumbing, not QE
Excess liquidity parked at the Fed. Draining = tightening financial conditions.
Normal: Near-zero pre-2021, elevated = excess liquidity
Total public debt as percent of GDP. Fiscal sustainability gauge.
Normal: <60% healthy, >100% elevated, >120% stress
Total US federal debt outstanding. Denominator for the foreign-held share.
Normal: Secular rise; trajectory and funding mix matter
Monthly Treasury budget surplus/deficit. Real-time fiscal impulse.
Normal: Negative = deficit
Household debt payments as percent of disposable income. Consumer cracking catalyst.
Normal: 10-12% normal, >13% stress, >14% consumer collapse
Total household assets minus liabilities. Wealth effect drives spending.
Normal: Trend growth, sharp drops = recession risk
Trade-weighted USD value vs. major trading partners.
Normal: Higher = EM stress
Net exports of goods and services. Deficit widening + strong dollar = EM stress risk.
Normal: Persistent deficit, watch rate of change
Total US exports. Global demand signal.
Normal: Rising = global growth
Total US imports. Domestic demand + tariff impact gauge.
Normal: Rising = domestic demand
Net capital flows — proxy for current account. Negative = foreign financing dependency.
Normal: Persistent negative for US
Federal debt held by foreign & international investors — proxy for global central bank FX reserves parked in USD.
Normal: ~$7-8T currently; declining share = de-dollarization signal
Foreign & international holdings of US Treasuries as a percent of total public debt outstanding. The de-dollarization gauge — a falling share means the rest of the world is funding less of the US deficit, pressuring term premium and the dollar.
Normal: ~23% and declining; ~34% a decade ago
US benchmark crude oil price per barrel.
Normal: $60-80 normal, >$100 inflation risk
US benchmark natural-gas spot price. Drives heating, electricity, and industrial costs; more domestically-driven than oil.
Normal: Volatile; weather- and storage-driven
US regular retail gasoline price — the most visible consumer price and a heavy input to inflation expectations and sentiment.
Normal: Sensitive to crude + refining margins
LBMA PM fix. Safe haven, inversely correlated with real rates and USD.
Normal: Tracks real rates, USD, and geopolitical risk
LBMA silver fix. Industrial + precious metal hybrid. More volatile than gold.
Normal: Tracks gold + industrial demand
Coinbase BTC price. Risk-on digital asset, correlated with liquidity and speculative appetite.
Normal: Tracks liquidity conditions and risk appetite
Annualized rate of new residential construction.
Normal: 1.3-1.6M annualized
The benchmark repeat-sales measure of US home prices. Price direction is what turns the pristine mortgage book risky — falling prices erase the equity cushion that keeps delinquency low.
Normal: Index (Jan 2000 = 100)
Months it would take to sell current new-home inventory at the current sales pace. ~6 months is a balanced market; higher = buyer's market and downward price pressure.
Normal: ~6 balanced; >7 soft; <4 tight
Whether a median-income family can afford a median-priced home (100 = exactly qualifies for the mortgage). Collapsed as prices and rates rose together — a key reason first-time buyers are frozen out.
Normal: 100 = median family qualifies; higher = more affordable
Survey-based measure of consumer confidence.
Normal: 80-100 normal, <70 pessimism
Inflation-adjusted consumer spending — 70% of GDP.
Normal: 2-3% YoY growth
Percent of disposable income saved. Buffer before consumer cracking.
Normal: 5-8%, <3% = running on fumes
Advance monthly retail and food services sales.
Normal: 3-5% YoY growth
Market value of nonfinancial corporate equities (FRED Z.1). Buffett's preferred market cap proxy and the numerator of the Buffett indicator.
Normal: Track relative to GDP, not the absolute level
Total US market cap as percent of nominal GDP. Buffett's 'best single measure' of valuation. >150% overvalued, >200% bubble territory — when stretched, tail hedges are attractive.
Normal: <100% undervalued, ~100% fair, >150% overvalued, >200% bubble
30-day implied volatility of S&P 500 options. The price of protection.
Normal: 12-18 complacent, 20-25 elevated, >30 fear, >40 crisis
Average years a newborn would live at current mortality rates. The single best summary of population health — the US decline/stagnation since ~2014 (deaths of despair, then COVID) is a rare reversal among rich countries.
Normal: ~79 pre-2020; dipped to ~76 in 2021
Rolling 12-month U.S. drug-overdose death count (CDC provisional). Updated monthly and genuinely timely — a real-time read on the 'deaths of despair' story. Fell from the ~2023 fentanyl-era peak but remains historically extreme.
Normal: ~70k pre-2020; peaked >110k in 2023
Health expenditures per person per year (USD). The US spends far more per capita than peers without matching life-expectancy gains — a cost/outcome efficiency signal.
Normal: Rising; ~$12k+ and among the highest globally
Percent of adults reporting recent symptoms of anxiety or depressive disorder (CDC Household Pulse). Biweekly during 2020-2024 — one of the only near-real-time mental-health reads. Note: the survey paused this indicator in late 2024.
Normal: ~11% pre-pandemic (2019); spiked to ~40%+ in 2020-21
Total fertility rate — lifetime births per woman at current rates. 2.1 is replacement level; the US has been below it and falling, a slow-moving driver of future labor force, growth, and entitlement math.
Normal: 2.1 = replacement; US ~1.6 and falling
Births per 1,000 people per year. Broad demographic pulse; declining births feed through to schools, housing formation, and long-run growth.
Normal: US ~11 and declining